|
|
|
|
|
Date |
Time |
Comments |
|
29/06/2007 |
17:04 |
Today's daily and hourly charts below.
We've formed a upward channel on the intraday that broke and was re-claimed at the close of the day session. The indicators are looking weak too but with prices bouncing back, hasn't given a clean signal.
|
|
27/06/2007 |
16:40 |
We saw a sharp decline today and it looks like the longer term trend may be turning.
I've been looking at a couple of indicators to combine with the 'break-out' method I've been using. I haven't really been a big fan of oscillator type indicators in the past, but combined with a break-out method, they may provide some useful confirmation.
Here's the latest hourly SPI with a momentum (14 periods) and Stochastic Momentum Index (14,3,5,3). There are a few variations of Stochastic out there and they all give similar indications for my purposes, so I'd use the standard 14 period one with whatever other numbers your software uses by default.
Basically, with the break out discussed previously, added confirmation is when the Momentum is approaches or cross zero (moving up for a breakout to the upside and moving down for a breakout to the downside) and the Stochastic indicator approaches or moves above -40 (for a breakout to the upside) or moves below 40 (for a break out to the downside).
Momentum divergence may also prove to be a tool for closing a trade (i.e. falling prices with rising momentum trend).
I've shown a few signals on the chart below.
Link to Hourly Charts with Indicators
|
|
25/06/2007 |
20:52 |
The latest hourly and daily charts are below.
I've been having a rethink on the strategy after the last few trades were stopped out.
Basically, the entry method is good - the SPI usually does start to move in the expected direction.
The problem is in taking profits - or rather not taking them.
Waiting for a larger move seemed good in theory, but when it doesn't eventuate, the paper profit that did occur gets wiped out when the market swings back.
So, what next? I'm thinking of a good exit strategy that will take the profits and get out, but hopefully not too early.
More soon...
|
|
19/06/2007 |
18:06 |
We moved higher again today.
I'm waiting to see if we break to new highs or if a triple top develops.
Stopped out on the previous trade.
|
|
15/06/2007 |
17:00 |
Wall Street pushed higher again overnight and this helped us move higher today.
The daily chart is below, but looking at the hourly bars it still looks like the action is corrective.
We rallied to Tuesday's high early on, a double top, and we fell away only to rally into the close.
All eyes should be on Wall Street, with the CPI data out tonight.
|
|
14/06/2007 |
17:05 |
We had a strong rally today, on the back of a bounce on Wall Street and locally, the RBA Governor stating that the bank is "unlikely to raise interest rates in the short term".
There's some CPI data out in the US on Friday, so that may well push the market one way or the other - my current bet is down.
|
|
13/06/2007 |
17:00 |
I'll stick with the June chart, despite opening a trade on the Sep contact because, as I mentioned yesterday, the Sep data is a bit patchy to see a good pattern at the moment.
Obviously, having shorted the SPI I'd like the market to plummet. Dropping below Monday's 6153 low would be a good start, so let's see if Wall Street can give us a push lower overnight.
This is a chart of S&P500 June contract. It looks like the two markets are singing the same song at the moment.
|
|
|
20:15 |
Prices looked they were weakening last night, so I shorted the market.
As the June contract is expiring next week, I used the Sep contract (sold @6240) - which was only a few points away from the June at the time.
Here's an hourly chart of the June contract at the time I traded - the Sep chart is still a bit patchy as it isn't the lead contract at the moment.
|
|
12/06/2007 |
16:46 |
With holiday Monday out the way and a small rally from Wall Street overnight, we saw prices bounce a bit higher and then fall back toward the end of the session.
I'm preparing for another bout of selling and for prices to head lower. Today's weakness into the close is a start. I'll be watching how Wall Street futures open - not sure if I'll be up to make a trade - I may have to wait until the morning to see if anything has happened.
|
|
08/06/2007 |
17:06 |
A fairly large down day today.
I think this may have turned the tide, as far as the trend is concerned.
As we've come off quite a lot of points (200+) since the Monday high, I think we're probably in for a bounce back up.
If this happens, the subsequent action should confirm if the trend has turned down and I'll be looking at short positions into further weakness.
|
|
07/06/2007 |
16:45 |
Prices followed Wall Street's overnight lead and headed lower today, with a rally toward the end of the session.
It looks more bearish to me at the moment, but I'll see how things develop.
|
|
06/06/2007 |
17:20 |
We should know soon whether this trend will break into new highs, or if a new leg down will start.
|
|
05/06/2007 |
17:22 |
No new high today, so I'm still on the cautious side.
|
|
04/06/2006 |
17:02 |
We rallied higher today and things look like they're back on a positive footing.
I'd still like the SPI to break clearly into new high ground before I get too excited.
If this happens, then some profit taking brings us back a bit and we find support before the next upward move, it would give me more confidence to trade.
|
|
01/06/2007 |
16:46 |
We rallied higher today, but this current price action has now developed a multi-day consolidation zone slightly lower and overlapping the previous one.
It doesn't look too bullish at the moment, let's see how things develop.
|
Entries are noted during the day and then posted later. Live entries would probably constitute 'trading advice' which the author neither wishes or is licensed to do.
The author uses spread betting to trade and therefore prices discussed (particularly high's and low's) may differ from real market prices.
This is a personal account of someone's own trading experiences. These are personal views of the author. The reader should always seek professional advice to suit their personal circumstances.
The content of this site IS NOT investment or trading advice.
If you find this site useful, please email the link to others. If not, simply browse away.
